BOISE, ID – A new budget report from the Idaho Legislature shows the state of Idaho is projected to end the current fiscal year 2026 with a budget deficit of nearly $80 million, which would violate the Idaho Constitution.
According to the FY26 General Fund Budget Monitor for August, “After accounting for updated revenue projections, the projected ending balance is negative $79.9 million.”
Idaho runs on a fiscal year calendar that begins July 1 and ends June 30.
That means the state is only about six weeks into the current fiscal year, and the new report reflects the first month of revenue activity in fiscal year 2026.
House Minority Leader Ilana Rubel, D-Boise, said the budget situation is severe and was created by Republicans who control the Idaho Legislature and set the state budget.
“We’ve been shouting warnings from the mountaintops about this from the very beginning of the session about the extremely reckless, permanent revenue cuts and voucher schemes they passed and the wild overestimates of revenue they adopted that were not in any way in line with what (the Division of Financial Management) projected,” Rubel said. “There were warning signs flashing from miles away that unfortunately our Republican colleagues chose to ignore.”
Rep. Wendy Horman, an Idaho Falls Republican who serves as the co-chair of the Idaho Legislature’s Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee that sets the state budget, disagreed. Horman said Idaho’s economy is healthy and the state actually collected more in revenue last year than it did before.
“I appreciate you recognizing we are very early in the fiscal year,” Horman said Thursday afternoon. “In my opinion, this is not cause for panic at all. One month of revenue does not make a trend. I always watch actual revenues much more than I watch revenue compared to the forecast.”
Since record surplus, Idaho lawmakers have reduced state revenue through tax cuts
A projected budget deficit is a major change for Idaho.
Just over three years ago, Idaho ended the 2022 fiscal year with a record budget surplus approaching $2 billion.
Since the record surplus, Idaho legislators reduced state revenue significantly.
During the 2025 legislative session alone, legislators and Idaho Gov. Brad Little reduced revenue that would have been available in the state budget by more than $450 million to pay for tax cuts and a new tax credit that reimburses families for education expenses, including tuition at private religious schools.
During a breakfast with the press corps in February, Little told reporters he was “not very happy about” the magnitude of revenue reductions the Idaho Legislature put forward this year.
“If I would have thought we could do $450 (million), I would have proposed $450 (million),” Little told reporters in February.
Although he didn’t propose as deep of tax cuts and revenue reductions, Rubel said Little did sign the state budget into law.
“He could have vetoed it; he did sign it,” Rubel said.
In March, former legislators Fred Wood and Julie Yamamoto – who are both Republicans – and former superintendent of public instruction candidate Cindy Wilson wrote a joint opinion piece published in the Idaho Capital Sun warning that “Idaho’s tax cuts proposed by the Legislature are a risk to our children’s future.”
Where did the new Idaho budget report come from?
Officials with the nonpartisan Idaho Legislative Services Office compiled the new report and released it Wednesday night.
The report was released less than a week after the governor announced that all state agencies – other than public schools – must cut their current budgets by 3%.
Although Idaho is just about six weeks into the fiscal year 2026 budget, any projected budget deficit is significant.
One of the only requirements Idaho legislators have under the Idaho Constitution is to pass a balanced budget every year where expenses do not exceed available revenues.
If the latest revenue projections hold and no other steps are taken, Idaho would fall short of that balanced-budget requirement, the state’s top budget official told the Idaho Capital Sun on Thursday.
“We cannot go through this year with the (budget) appropriation the Legislature set for us or we will exceed revenue,” Idaho Division of Financial Management Administrator Lori Wolff said in an interview Thursday morning. “That is why the governor asked for at least 3% holdbacks.”
Idaho is so early in the current fiscal year that the projected budget deficit could increase, decrease or rebound into a surplus.
The new budget projections do not include any supplemental funding requests for the fiscal year 2026 budget, Wolff said. That means if the wildfire season runs long and costs exceed state funding levels, or if Medicaid expenses come in higher than projected, the budget deficit could become even larger.
How can Idaho prevent a budget deficit?
It is likely Idaho won’t actually have a budget deficit when the 2026 fiscal year ends June 30. Horman said there are “all kinds of budgetary levers the Legislature can pull” in response to any budget concerns once they reconvene in January.
Additionally, Idaho law gives the governor the authority to issue an executive order to reduce spending for any department, office or institution of the state if the governor determines expenses will exceed available revenue.
The Idaho Legislative Services Office estimated the 3% budget holdbacks Little announced Friday would reduce spending by $86.1 million if implemented by all state agencies this year. If everything else in the August budget projections hold up and there are $0 in fiscal year 2026 supplemental funding requests, the 3% holdbacks would give Idaho a narrow $6.2 million cushion between a budget surplus and a budget deficit at the end of the current fiscal year.
Does Idaho have any savings to guard against a budget shortfall?
Idaho has more than $1 billion in rainy day reserve funds in the bank. According to the Idaho Legislature’s 2025 Sine Die Report, the state’s primary rainy day account had a balance of over $880 million, while the Public Education Stabilization Fund had a balance of about $265 million.
Horman said it takes legislative action to use rainy day funds, which she does not support at this time.
“We want to save the rainy day funds for when it is actually raining,” Horman said. “It is not raining, in my opinion, on Aug. 21.”
Horman did say she supports the 3% holdbacks Little authorized and said the Idaho Legislature will reassess the budget situation and new revenue projections when the 2026 legislative session begins in January.
When they reconvene, legislators may discuss making the holdbacks permanent, Horman said.
“As we always do, we will reassess where things are in January and make a determination if the 3% holdbacks need to be made permanent as we see where our revenues are then and what the economic situation is by then,” Horman said.
On the other hand Rubel, the House minority leader, said that Idahoans will feel the forthcoming budget cuts, and they will hurt many people.
Rubel said that cutting all state agencies except public schools means the state is cutting funding for law enforcement through Idaho State Police, cutting funding for prisons through the Idaho Department of Correction and cutting funding for the Idaho Department of Lands, which fights wildfires on state land.
“This was the most fiscally reckless legislative session by the majority party in modern history and maybe ever,” Rubel said. “They left us unable to cover our most basic needs because of enormous giveaways to the wealthiest people and corporations in the state.”
This story first appeared on Idaho Capital Sun.