BOISE, ID – A new budget report that shows Idaho is projecting an $80 million budget deficit does not factor in the costs of conforming to federal tax changes in Congress’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act, state budget officials said Monday.
One outside estimate indicates federal tax conformity could cost the state of Idaho another $167 million that is not calculated into the projected $80 million budget deficit.
As a result, some state legislators worry the projected budget deficit could be even bigger than it initially appeared in last week’s budget report.
How does Congress’ One Big Beautiful Bill Act affect Idaho’s budget?
President Donald Trump signed the act into law on July 4.
The act makes several tax changes, which would have an impact on revenue available for state tax systems, the Tax Foundation wrote.
Those changes include no tax on a worker’s tips, no tax on a borrower’s car loan interest, no tax on a worker’s overtime premium pay and a higher deduction for seniors.
If Idaho adopts those changes, each of them would reduce revenue.
“It’s a lot more serious because legislators are going to be asked – I am sure – to adopt the no tax on tips (provision) and the overtime exemptions (in the act),” Rep. John Gannon, D-Boise, said Monday. “It certainly will have an impact overall on revenue, and that revenue impact will be negative.”
State officials have not yet officially calculated the costs of adopting the act’s tax changes and may not know the full impact of those costs until the Idaho Legislature runs a tax conformity bill during the 2026 legislative session that begins in January, Idaho Division of Financial Management Administrator Lori Wolff said Monday.
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However, outside cost estimates are circulating.
Last month, the nonprofit Tax Foundation published a report on the state tax implications from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that estimated it would cost $167 million if Idaho were to adopt the tax changes from the bill.
Keith Bybee, the budget and policy analysis manager for the Idaho Legislative Services Office, and Wolff said Monday Idaho’s budget projections do not include the cost of the act and its new tax changes.
Any budget deficit would violate the Idaho Constitution, which requires that the state pass a balanced budget where expenses do not exceed available revenues.
Rep. Wendy Horman, an Idaho Falls Republican who serves as co-chair of the Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee, or JFAC, said she is not worried about revenue projections issued one month into a fiscal year that began July 1.
Horman said actual revenue collections last year were higher than the year before, and she isn’t as worried about revenue and budget projections.
“I’m not going to engage in fearmongering, as some of my colleagues are,” Horman said Monday. “This is about a revenue forecast, not actual revenue. We’ll continue to monitor and assess all available data and make appropriate decisions in January based on actual revenue and revenue trends, regardless of whether they are above or below the forecast. We know it will be one or the other.”
JFAC is a powerful legislative committee that meets daily during the legislative session to set all the budgets for every state agency and department.
News of a projected budget deficit represents a significant change for Idaho, where many of the same state legislators were celebrating a record budget surplus of nearly $2 billion just three years ago.
Since then, state legislators have taken significant steps to reduce state revenue through tax cuts and credits.
State agencies have already been asked to cut spending this year
Earlier this month, Gov. Brad Little issued an executive order requiring all state agencies – other than public schools – to cut 3% from their current fiscal year 2026 budget.
Then, a new monthly budget report released by the Idaho Legislative Services Office last week projected Idaho would end the current fiscal year on June 30 with a $79.9 million budget deficit.
The midyear budget holdbacks and projected budget deficit are arriving just months after Little and the Idaho Legislature reduced the revenue available for the state budget by more than $450 million to pay for tax cuts and a new tax credit that reimburses families for education expenses including tuition at private religious schools.
Before the 2025 legislative session, Little proposed $100 million in tax cuts and another $50 million for what became the education tax credit. But legislators pushed the total to $453 million between the tax cuts and new tax credit.
During a breakfast with the press corps in February, Little expressed concern with the magnitude of revenue reductions put forth by the Idaho Legislature, telling reporters, “So they know, I’m not very happy about it.”
“If I would have thought we could do $450 (million), I would have proposed $450 (million),” Little said then.
State Sen. Melissa Wintrow, D-Boise, said sudden cuts to revenue and midyear budget holdbacks are the wrong approach to budgeting in a growing state like Idaho.
“At a time where the population is growing so much, that revenue needs to be reinvested in our state’s infrastructure to make sure we have roads, schools and other services working families benefit from and aren’t starving ourselves out,” Wintrow said. “Now, what roads aren’t going to get finished? What water projects aren’t going to get done?”
Wintrow said the state already has cut revenue too much, and she worries working families will feel the biggest impact as state agencies begin implementing the 3% cuts Little already ordered.
“My colleagues in the majority party talk so much about being responsible, but this is the most irresponsible handling of the budget I have ever seen,” said Wintrow, who has served in the Idaho Legislature since 2015.
This story first appeared on Idaho Capital Sun.