BOISE, ID – Many Idahoans still think the state is headed in the right direction, but they are worried about the state’s economy, a new survey shows.

About four in 10 Idahoans — 42% — expect the state’s economic conditions to worsen over the next two years, while a quarter expect Idaho’s economy to improve, according to Boise State University’s annual Idaho Public Policy Survey released Friday.

Idahoans’ attitudes toward the state’s economic future shifted significantly since last year, with a 19-point swing away from optimism and toward pessimism, the survey showed. Roughly 29% of Idahoans expect the state’s economy to remain the same, which was similar last year.

Researchers behind the survey believe national events likely influenced Idahoans’ attitudes toward the state economy.

“The fact that you had tariffs on the top of people’s minds, we had the economic uncertainty and all of the price volatility over the summer, I think that was probably on a lot of people’s minds. And not quite knowing what was coming next is potentially … why we see more people racing for economic uncertainty,” Matthew May, survey research director for Boise State University’s School of Public Service, told reporters Friday.

But even with the economic anxiety, Idahoans still largely felt the state is headed in the right direction, with 46% of Idahoans saying they believed that compared to almost 38% of residents saying the state is on the wrong track. Those opinions didn’t change much from last year, when most Idahoans for the first time in six years said they felt the state was on the right track.

“All together, this year’s survey results reflect the delicate balance of a complex Idaho citizenry,” a report on the poll concluded. “Idahoans are split, with pluralities simultaneously believing optimistically that the state is headed in the right direction but pessimistically expecting its economy to get worse over the next two years.”

The survey, conducted Nov. 8-17, surveyed 1,000 Idaho adults who lived in 42 of the state’s 44 counties. It has a margin of error of 3.1%, indicating how much Idahoans’ actual opinions could vary from the survey findings.

The poll also shows that most Idahoans appear to support a proposed ballot initiative that would overturn Idaho’s strict abortion ban and establish reproductive health rights.

In the November general election, Idaho voters could be asked if they want to repeal Idaho’s strict abortion ban.

The survey showed that a majority of Idahoans appear to support the proposed ballot initiative. Here’s what it found:

• Pollsters asked about the ballot initiative in two ways. Both questions laid out the initiative as establishing “a right to make private reproductive health care decisions, including abortion up to fetal viability and in medical emergencies.” But one question gave the initiative’s official title, which is the “Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act.”
• Without the name, 59% of Idahoans said they support the initiative. With the name, support slightly bumped up to 61%.

In a newsletter, organizers of the initiative touted the poll as showing strong support for the initiative.

“Radical lobbyists and politicians imposed an extreme ban on every Idahoan, but most Idahoans simply don’t agree,” wrote Melanie Folwell, executive director for Idahoans United for Women and Families.

The survey didn’t ask about two other drug-related questions that could be on Idaho voters’ November ballots: A constitutional amendment proposed by the Legislature that would strip voters’ rights to legalize drugs, and a possible ballot initiative that would legalize medicinal marijuana.

What else the survey asked about: Tax policy, private education tax credits, housing affordability, public lands, and ICE

The survey also asked about a range of other policy issues. Here’s some highlights:

• Economic anxiety hits home for some. Asked about their general financial situation, the largest share of Idahoans, 43%, said they or their families are just getting by. About 35% said they are living comfortably, and 20% said they are finding it difficult to get by.

• High support for last year’s private school tax credit. When asked if they supported the Legislature’s law — which created a $50 million fund to dole out $5,000 tax credits for students to attend private school — most Idahoans said they supported it. Support was higher, at 61%, when pollsters called the legislation House Bill 93, compared to when pollsters called it the Idaho Parental Choice Tax Credit, which had 56% support.

• Housing affordability remains a top priority. About 39% of respondents said that housing affordability is their top priority, followed by nearly 26% of people listing K-12 education, almost 15% saying tax relief, and roughly 12% saying transportation and infrastructure.
• Most Idahoans think property taxes are too high. Nearly 52% of Idahoans said they think property taxes in the state are too high. Roughly 35% said property taxes were about right, almost 12% weren’t sure and 2% said they were too low.

• But tax structure preferences aren’t that clear. Almost half, roughly 46% of Idahoans, said they would prefer a tax structure that has lower property taxes in exchange for higher sales taxes. But other Idahoans seemed split between not being sure on which tax structure they’d prefer, or if property tax should be higher in exchange for lower sales taxes.

• Many Idahoans don’t want feds to turn over public lands to the state. Told that the federal government turning over public lands to Idaho could cost the state millions of dollars each year, almost half — 46% — of Idahoans said they’d oppose that move. About 35% said they’d support it, and 18% weren’t sure.

• Most Idahoans think more ICE presence would harm ag economy. More than half — 53% – of Idahoans said they think an increased presence of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement in the state would harm Idaho’s agricultural economy. Around 19% said more ICE presence would help the state’s ag economy, while 18% predicted it wouldn’t have an impact and 10% said they weren’t sure what it would do.

Today’s forecast is brought to you by Idaho Capital Sun.